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“Your most unhappy customers are your greatest source of learning.” – Bill Gates, Microsoft Corporation Founder

There is a need to change the lexicon from “Voice of the Customer” to “Voice of the Market” and then to “Voice of the Target Segment.”

As we approach the start of the 2019 baseball season, baseball fans and analysts are debating the decisions by the California Angels and Philadelphia Phillies to give such lucrative contracts to Mike Trout and Bryce Harper respectively.  Just a few weeks ago, Bryce Harper received an unprecedented $330 Million (13 year) contract. Until Mike Trout’s deal with the Angels, Harper’s deal was the largest contract in the history of the big four U.S. professional sports (MLB, NHL, NFL and even the NBA).  While some observers might want to believe that these deals are based upon emotions, these contracts are purely financial decisions. For example, if we take a deeper look at the Phillies’ deal with Harper, the financial analysis looks very attractive.

Whether it’s a Fortune 500 company, private enterprise or professional sports, business decisions must consider both strategic and financial metrics. In the case of the Philadelphia Phillies, a Net Present Value analysis is all that is needed.

The NPV Analysis

It is now public knowledge that Bryce Harper had several non-negotiable items, and a 13-year contract was at the top of his list.

As the Phillies considered various scenarios, they also needed to assess their risks and key assumptions that should be incorporated into their analysis. This type of discussion is similar to a company decision to enter into a new business venture, or develop a new product.  Bryce Harper is the new business venture and there are potential risks to be considered.  Also, there are minimum, likely, and optimistic scenarios regarding revenue streams. In the corporate world, this would be primarily driven by market size, market share, and the selling price of a product / service.  In the case of professional sports, it is primarily driven by stadium attendance and TV revenue. Other revenue contributors include parking fees, apparel licensing and stadium concessions.

The biggest factor is the assumption that signing Bryce Harper will increase the attendance at the Phillies home stadium.  Just considering the regular season, there are 81 home games.  If the Phillies make the playoffs (beyond the wild card game), there could be an additional 4-12 home games each season. Based upon historical data, the Phillies attendance increased by more than 500,000 per (regular) season in years when they made the playoffs.

Key Assumptions:

1. For the Net Present Value analysis, we will assume they will make the playoffs in year 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9 (only 5 out of the 13 years of his contract).
2. During these playoff years, there will be additional TV revenue and attendance revenue as well.
3. Ticket prices have weighted average of $65 each.
4. 50% of the attendees will park at the stadium (with an average of three persons per vehicle).
5. No additional apparel revenue is included in this assumption (this will be considered upside). Note: there are already reports that apparel sales are increasing significantly
6. No additional TV revenue is included in the model – because that information is not easily available, but certainly can be estimated by the Phillies management team
7. Bryce Harper will be injured 3 years (of the 13) and this is reflected in assumption #1

NPV Equation:

In this equation:

Rt = net cash inflow-outflows during a single period t

i = discount rate or return that could be earned in alternative investments

t = number of time periods

As a simplified scenario, let’s consider the following:

T = The number of time periods = 13 (years)

i = 10% (or .10); This is a reasonable assumption for the current market environment

The net cash flows over the 13 years is estimated as follows:

Based upon the assumptions, the Net Present Value is a positive $9,251,339.

This does not even include any incremental TV revenue or apparel licensing revenue. So, even with these (arguably) conservative estimates, it seems to be a sound business and financial decision for the Phillies.

In summary, all significant business decisions need to consider both strategic and financial implications. In this case, an unbelievably large (and unprecedented) contract appears to be a sound financial decision – even on a risk adjusted basis.  When you have financial discussions in your company, it’s absolutely critical that you identify potential risks and assumptions, and agree upon the key assumptions that will have the largest impact on the NPV analysis. In situations where you have many scenarios and probability factors associated with each assumption, you may need to consider more advanced analytical tools (e.g. Crystal Ball®). The Market Edge team helps clients with strategic decision making and the qualitative and quantitative assumptions that help guide sound decisions.

How do we lead the discussion from Price to Value?
If we do not understand our value, we are destined to give it away

Does your organization have the required commercial capabilities to quantify and capture the value associated with your offer?

Our clients face increased pressure to define and hold value in markets with professional purchasing, increased transparency and consolidated downstream power.

However, not all businesses have the required commercial (sales AND marketing) capabilities to raise or hold prices effectively in this environment.

Our experience with a range of global, category leading B2B companies shows the following are critical to defining and holding value.

Customer selection – Targeting the right customers is a critical first step in a value-oriented approach. Leading organizations understand that “average is the enemy” and focus on target customer segments, not simply the average customer.

Actionable customer insight – Detailed identification of the value drivers for a target segment or account is critical to developing a value proposition and focusing on the most important components of value.

Value quantification – Defining the value associated with customer offers involves more than product performance and benefits. Leading organizations uncover other operational or efficiency components that can be validated and quantified.

Value communication – Disciplined value proposition development, negotiation preparation and campaign development ensure that value messages are delivered clearly and concisely in a way that resonates with the target customer.

Value capture discipline – Organizations have an agreed price strategy and are ready to capture the value confidently.  Value discipline extends from marketing to operations, sales and technical departments and ensures that the aligned organization has process and metrics to capture the value it delivers.

For examples of the concepts and tools above in practice, contact info@mkt-edge.com

Developing B2B Sales Capability: Can B2C examples be used to develop B2B Selling Capability?

We are often asked if B2C tactics and examples are relevant for developing B2B Sales Capability.  The answer (as with most consulting answers) is, “it depends”.

In both B2C and B2B, the sales function helps move customers through the buying cycle (awareness, consideration, decision, acquisition) deliberately and efficiently.  In B2C purchases, there is usually one decision maker and procurement cycles are shorter. B2B sales, however, must target multiple roles with varying needs and problems to be solved.  Typically, B2B sales must communicate:

Great sales managers know how to develop and communicate their value proposition to the right role at the right time.

Both B2C and B2B customers want to “feel good” about their purchase decisions (i.e. I paid a fair price for good value…).  B2B decision makers have business as well as personal wins to consider.  The Business Win is proving value.  The seller’s value proposition articulates how their offer increases the customer’s profitability.  The Personal Win is achieved by linking the purchase to the decision maker’s performance criteria (e.g. reduce variable spend for a purchasing manager) or by increasing the decision maker’s status (e.g. delivering a new product launch on time and on budget).

B2B selling skills are not art (although there can be a lot of creative license in delivery styles) but do follow disciplined approaches and proven practices to maximize strategic and tactical selling investments. Sales capability is a product of knowing and practicing the right skills.  Those who consistently outperform their peers usually follow a disciplined approach to engaging, understanding and anticipating the needs of their customers.

Market Edge has worked with category leading B2B companies to develop effective selling programs for the past 25 years. To learn more about our programs related to Selling Skills or to attend a Market Edge Academy program on this subject or other related Marketing and Sales topics, CLICK HERE.