Stage 1 · Market understanding

Risk Analysis and VUCA

Risk Analysis maps the probability and impact of market risks so teams can plan scenarios and responses. The VUCA version helps teams think through volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity in markets where the usual forecasts don't hold.

Use this tool with your team All 22 tools

Questions it answers

1Which risks could most change our plan?

2How likely are they, and how big is the impact?

3What would we do if they happen?

How it works

The steps teams follow in our programs and projects.

Step 1

List risks

From PEST drivers, competitors, supply and policy.

Step 2

Rate them

Probability and impact for each.

Step 3

Build scenarios

Combine the biggest risks into a few plausible scenarios.

Step 4

Plan responses

Triggers, actions and owners.

What you get

The output

A risk map and a small set of scenarios with agreed responses.

Where AI helps

Where judgment decides

Generates scenario ideas and tracks indicators.

Watches for bias in rating risks and decides on responses.

From our client work

How clients apply it

Paraphrased and anonymized from recent programs and engagements.

Application 1

A specialty chemicals business used scenarios on tariffs, supplier pricing and new capacity to test a make-or-buy decision.

Application 2

Members of a B2B marketing institute received a VUCA tool to plan for tariffs, energy prices and regulation.

Point of view

Seen in the market

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Recent Market Edge points of view that apply this tool.

Volatile markets · April 2026

Why do purchase criteria shift in volatile markets?

In volatile, uncertain markets, supply assurance and lead time can quickly become the criteria that decide a purchase, and share and price move with them.

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